The Analysis of the Linkages Between Inflation, Exports and Imports, and the Interest Rate on the Exchange Rate in Indonesia in the Year 2010-2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47312/aefr.v7i1.497Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Inflation, Export, Import, InterestAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of the inflation rate, import-export activities, interest ratessimultaneously on fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar from 2010 to
2019. The method used in this study is the VAR/VECM with the Eviews analysis tool. to see
whether there is a long-term or short-term effect between variables. The results of this study
all have a positive influence on the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and are in
accordance with the hypothesis and theory used, but the export activity variable is not in
accordance with the hypothesis and theory because of the influence of imports on raw materials
to produce export goods. This study also provides an update where the interest rate variable
uses the theory of interest rate parity, which states that there is a balance of international
interest with domestic interest so that the relationship between interest can affect fluctuations
in the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and increase incoming capital flows.
Downloads
References
Cheung, Y.-W., Chinn, M. D., & Qian, X. (2016). China-US Trade Flow Behavior: The Implications of Alternative Exchange Rate Measures and Trade Classification. Rev World Econ, 43-67.
Degirmen, S., & Saltik, O. (2017). Impact of Realized Volatility of Oil Price Over Foreign Trade Related Activities in Turkey. Econ Change Restruct, 193-209.
Diana, K. A., & Dewi, N. P. (2017, Agustus). ANALISIS FAKTOR FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH ATAS DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT DI INDONESIA. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 9, 1631-1661.
Dzakiyah, Z., Puspitaningtyas, Z., & Puspita, Y. (2018). PENGARUH JUMLAH NILAI EKSPOR DAN TINGKAT INFLASI TERHADAP KURS RUPIAH TAHUN 2010-2016. Jurnal Perilaku dan Strategi Bisnis, 6, 104-110.
Farlian, T., Fitriani, N., Fachruddin, R., Zulkifli, N., & Philiphie, J. (2019, Oktober). THE EFFECT OF INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE ON DOLLARS EXCHANGE (JANUARY-DECEMBER 2018). Proceedings of the 2nd Aceh Global Conference on Business Economic and Sustainable Development Trends, 98-103.
Febriati, D. R., Tiro, M. A., & Sudarmin. (2021). Metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR) dalam Menganalisis Pengaruh Kurs Mata Uang Terhadap Ekspor dan Impor di Indonesia. Journal of Statistic and its Application on Teaching and Research, 3, 23-30.
Hazizah, N., Zainura, & Viphindrartiin, S. (2017). Pengaruh JUB, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Nilai tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika. e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi, 1, 97-103.
Kahinde, T. (2014, July). Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Exchange Rates of a Sample of Advanced and Emerging Market Currencies. 1-12.
Kandil, M., Berument, H., & Dincer, N. N. (2007). The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Economics Activity in Turkey. Journal of Asian Economics , 466-489.
Karytika, S., & Sabtiadi, K. (2018, Desember). ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR IMPOR TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR USD DAN SGD. Akuntansi, Ekonomi dan Manajemen Bisnis, 6, 135-141.
Kelana, S. (1996). Ekonomi Makro dalam Perekonomian Terbuka.
Kusumastuti, S. Y. (2004). PENENTUAN NILAI TUKAR:PENGUJIAN PURCHASING POWER PARITY DI INDONESIA. KINERJA, 8, 43-55.
Landa, T. N. (2017, Februari). PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN SUKU BUNGA BI TERHADAP KURS RUPIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2005-2014. JOM Fekon, 4.
Mankiw, G. (2013). Perekonomian Terbuka.
Mankiw, G. (2013). Tinjauan Ulang Perekonomian Terbuka: Model Mundell-Fleming dan Rezim Nilai Tukar.
Murtadho, M. (2016, Agustus). Pengaruh Suku Bunga terhadap Nilai Tukar serta Pengaruhnya pada Indeks Harga Saham (Studi Kasus Indonesia, China, dan Australia). Manajemen Kinerja, 2.
Mustika, C., Umiyati, E., & Achmad, E. (2015, Oktober). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Neto terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Paradigma Ekonomika, 10, 292-301.
Musyaffa, A. S., & Sulasmiyati, S. (2017, September). PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR (Studi Pada Bank Indonesia Periode 2011-2015). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 50, 19-24.
Nasution, D. P., & Ilmi, L. A. (t.thn.). EFFEKTIVITAS TEORI PURCHASING POWER PARITY PADA NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AS.
Novalina, A. (2016). POLA PREDIKSI STABILITAS EKONOMI MAKRO INDONESIA (KAJIAN MODEL MUNDELL-FLEMMING). Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 1, 1-10.
Pradyumn. The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in India.
Purba, M. (2018, September). Money Market Analysis on the Mundell-Fleming Model in the Indonesian Economy (2010-2017). Jurnal Ilmiah Maksitek, 3, 16-27.
Rosnawintang. (2018, Desember). HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS NILAI TUKAR, SUKU BUNGA, DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7, 29-45.
Santoso, T., & Basuki, M. U. (2009, September). DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA. Organisasi dan Manajemen, 5, 109-128.
Sarno, L., & Mark, T. P. (2002). Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate. 49, 65-105.
Suluk, S., & Tanriseven, K. (2018). Purchasing Power Parity in the Euro Area: Evidence from Structural Breal LM Test. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 370-378.
Sekkat, K., & Varoudakis, A. EXCHANGE-RATE MANAGEMENT AND MANUFACTUREDE EXPORTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA. 6-56.
SEMBIRING, M. ANALISIS VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) TERHADAP INTERRELATIONSHIP ANTARA IPM DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI SUMATERA UTARA.
Setyawati, T. (1993). PENYIMPANGAN TERHADAP DOKTRIN PARITAS DAYA BELI STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA 1978(11)-1991(09). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 8.
Silitonga, R. B., & Ishak, Z. M. (2017, Juni). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 15, 53-59.
Sutawijaya, A., & Lestary, E. P. (2013, Juni). PENERAPAN METODE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM INTERAKSI KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 14, 66-77.
Tafa, J. (2015, July). Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate: Case of Albania. Mediterranean Journal of Social Science, 6, 163-170.
Wijayanti, Y. (2017, Januari). PENGARUH TINGKAT INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH (Studi pada Bank Indonesia Periode Tahun 2011-2015 ). Equilibrium, 5, 32-43.
Wulandar, D., & Karonesia, P. I. PENGARUH INFLASI DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2003-2019. 1-12.
Yudha, A. E. (2009, Juli). ANALISIS PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA SBI DAN VOLUME EKSPOR IMPOR TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7, 48-62.
Zakiah, & Usman, U. (2019, Agustus). Hubungan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Inflasi, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Pendapatan Nasional di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Dinamis. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 2, 99-108.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
